Covid-19

South Africa Unlocked

This month’s edition, entitled South Africa Unlocked, highlights the devastating impact of the lockdown on the South African economy and the urgent need for re-opening.

Premium subscribers are encouraged to schedule an online briefing with the CRA team to discuss the latest policy developments and attendant risks.

Risk Alert (Week of 18 May 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje, argues that South Africa’s purported move to Lockdown Level 3 remains vague, with no clear benchmarks attached to the various levels, and no plan in place to manage the transition.

Globally, Dr Cronje observes that the continued posturing between the USA and China will be tempered by both nations’ interdependent trade relationship.

Expect a stuttering economic re-opening in Europe and the UK if Covid-19 reproductive rates remain below 1.

Risk Alert (Week of 11 May 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers tensions between the United States and China, and the prospects for both economies in a post-Covid-19 global recovery.

Domestically, Dr Cronje highlights the recent statements made by President Ramaphosa in favour of “Radical Economic Transformation” as well as the isolation of the Finance Minister within the cabinet.

Fallout: Covid-19 and the economy

This month’s edition of the Macro Review explores the economic consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic in South Africa and the world.

The report provides the latest data on economic growth estimates, trade and investment volumes, as well as an analysis of the fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis.

Risk Alert (Week of 4 May 2020)

This week, Bheki Mahlobo argues that the move from Stage 5 to Stage 4 lockdown represents a political response to public frustration at the lockdown, rather than a substantive change in policy.

Mahlobo notes that the reform faction of the ANC remains a minority, with the securocrats and ideologues controlling the balance of power.

Internationally, Mahlobo highlights the risk of South Africa’s foreign policy stances undermining longer term access to western funding.

Risk Alert (Week of 27 April)

CRA Research Assistant, Bheki Mahlobo argues that this week’s expected move from phase 5 to phase 4 of the South African lockdown may do relatively little to restore much by way of domestic economic activity.

Mahlobo notes that the weakness of South Africa’s stimulus position, combined with the flaws in the new lockdown model could see a major crisis in which public confidence in the government collapses just as the South African infection curve escalates and millions of people are forced to come to terms with deepening impoverishment.

Risk Alert (Week of 20 April)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers the proposal by the European Commission to reopen the economies of Europe, and contrasts this with the recent tightening of restrictions in Japan.

On South Africa, Dr Cronje discusses the growing likelihood of increased stimulus spending and highlights the prospect of money-printing as a medium-term risk.

Dr Cronje also reflects on the risks attendant to a premature re-opening of South Africa’s schools, which, he argues, would undermine much of the effect of the lockdown to date.

[Video] Economic consequences of the lockdown in South Africa

David Ansara of the CRA discusses the South African government's national lockdown strategy and the problems associated with it, including the artificial distinction between "essential" and "non-essential" services.

David was interviewed by Cyrus Rogers of the Covid-19 Chronicles.

Risk Alert (Week of 13 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje identifies the ideological and political contestation within the Tripartite Alliance as a major risk complicating South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery thereafter.

Dr Cronje also provides projections of Covid-19 mortality estimates based on various case fatality rates (from 0.5% on the lower end to 2% on the top end). He argues that without much improved levels of testing, analysts and policy makers alike are effectively driving blind in their response to the pandemic.

Risk Alert (Week of 6 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that despite the economic and market disruption, the worst case global scenarios for Covid-19 might be dissipating.

While there may be relative upsides beginning to emerge internationally, Dr Cronje’s assessment of South Africa’s recovery prospects are more downbeat as isolation protocols falter and the economic impact of the lockdown begin to be felt.

Lockdown: SA’s capacity to deal with the Covid-19 crisis

This edition of the Macro Review highlights the key areas of vulnerability that will ultimately determine the effectiveness of South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The report is divided into four sections:

Overview of the pandemic globally and its domestic effects
An analysis of the social profile of South Africa, including demographics and living conditions
A diagnostic of SA’s current healthcare resources, personnel and infrastructure
The economic impact of the crisis and the consequent fiscal and monetary responses

Risk Alert (Week of 30 March)

In this week’s alert, Dr Frans Cronje warns that the SA response to the Covid-19 pandemic may not be as effective as in other countries, especially as poorer communities struggle to adhere to isolation protocols.

Dr Cronje also looks beyond the current crisis to assess SA’s economic outlook post-Covid-19. Last week’s Moody’s downgrade will hinder recovery efforts, and will likely result in further ZAR weakening.

COVID-19: Global Scenarios

The Centre For Risk Analysis has released this Covid-19 Global Scenarios report to enable clients to develop immediate strategic responses to the Covid-19 crisis under conditions of rapid change, great uncertainty and limited information.

In this report, the CRA team has identified fifteen key driving forces that will shape the development of the crisis. These forces are ranked by relative impact and uncertainty in order to develop a series of scenarios for the pandemic and the global response.

The CRA will continue to work on and refine these scenarios and updated versions will be published, as well as explicit policy proposals for government and the private sector to pursue.

Clients of the CRA should schedule online briefings for our analysts to explain these scenarios and how they will come to affect their industry and society.