Risk Alert (Week of 30 March)
In this week’s alert, Dr Frans Cronje warns that the SA response to the Covid-19 pandemic may not be as effective as in other countries, especially as poorer communities struggle to adhere to isolation protocols.
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Dr Cronje also looks beyond the current crisis to assess SA’s economic outlook post-Covid-19. Last week’s Moody’s downgrade will hinder recovery efforts, and will likely result in further ZAR weakening.
COVID-19: Global Scenarios
The Centre For Risk Analysis has released this Covid-19 Global Scenarios report to enable clients to develop immediate strategic responses to the Covid-19 crisis under conditions of rapid change, great uncertainty and limited information.
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In this report, the CRA team has identified fifteen key driving forces that will shape the development of the crisis. These forces are ranked by relative impact and uncertainty in order to develop a series of scenarios for the pandemic and the global response.
The CRA will continue to work on and refine these scenarios and updated versions will be published, as well as explicit policy proposals for government and the private sector to pursue.
Clients of the CRA should schedule online briefings for our analysts to explain these scenarios and how they will come to affect their industry and society.