Covid-19

Global and South African Scenarios in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic

Global and South African Scenarios in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic

The report identifies ten key driving forces of the Covid-19 crisis and provides four scenarios for the future of the pandemic using the CRA’s unique scenario planning methodology.
Read more

In this paper we seek to estimate the likely trajectory of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes – Covid-19 – on the world and South Africa.

Specifically, we seek to address how long the pandemic will last, what its effects on people and their health will be, what its economic ramifications will be, and what it will take for South Africa to successfully endure the pandemic.

This is to guide decision makers as to the likely trajectory of the virus and allow them to test the robustness of the strategies they have put in place to mitigate the effects of the virus.

Risk Alert | SA GDP contracts for third consecutive quarter… and counting

Risk Alert | SA GDP contracts for third consecutive quarter… and counting

6 July 2020 - This week, CRA analyst Bheki Mahlobo discusses South Africa’s chronically underperforming economy.
Read more

As GDP declined by 2% in Q1 2020, South Africa’s recession continued for the third consecutive quarter under President Cyril Ramaphosa. Further contractions of over 30% are expected in Q2 as a consequence of the government-imposed Lockdown.

This comes amidst signs of a robust post-Covid-19 global recovery driven by gradual re-opening in the developed world.

Risk Alert | Next steps for SA: will fiscal pressure breed reform?

Risk Alert | Next steps for SA: will fiscal pressure breed reform?

29 June 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje, argues that fears of a “second wave” of Covid-19 infections in America are misplaced, but that such fears might nevertheless rattle financial markets.
Risk Alert | Can SA take advantage of stronger global commodity prices?

Risk Alert | Can SA take advantage of stronger global commodity prices?

15 June 2020 - This week, CRA analyst, Bheki Mahlobo explores whether South Africa can take advantage of increased commodity prices as the world begins to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis.
Read more

Mahlobo also discusses the prospects for reform in South Africa’s electoral system, as well as recent polling which suggests high demand for deregulation of the labour market.

Risk Alert (Week of 1 June 2020)

Risk Alert (Week of 1 June 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje raises concerns about South Africa’s Covid-19 testing and tracing capabilities as the country enters level 3 of its Lockdown.
Read more

On the international front, Dr Cronje notes that R remains below 1 for much of Europe, America, and Asia, signalling the early stages of a global recovery.

Beyond Covid-19, Dr Cronje highlights the restrictions on Hong Kong’s autonomy by Beijing, as well as growing Russian influence in Libya.

South Africa Unlocked

South Africa Unlocked

This month’s edition, entitled South Africa Unlocked, highlights the devastating impact of the lockdown on the South African economy and the urgent need for re-opening.
Read more

Premium subscribers are encouraged to schedule an online briefing with the CRA team to discuss the latest policy developments and attendant risks.

Risk Alert (Week of 18 May 2020)

Risk Alert (Week of 18 May 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje, argues that South Africa’s purported move to Lockdown Level 3 remains vague, with no clear benchmarks attached to the various levels, and no plan in place to manage the transition.
Read more

Globally, Dr Cronje observes that the continued posturing between the USA and China will be tempered by both nations’ interdependent trade relationship.

Expect a stuttering economic re-opening in Europe and the UK if Covid-19 reproductive rates remain below 1.

Risk Alert (Week of 11 May 2020)

Risk Alert (Week of 11 May 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers tensions between the United States and China, and the prospects for both economies in a post-Covid-19 global recovery.
Read more

Domestically, Dr Cronje highlights the recent statements made by President Ramaphosa in favour of “Radical Economic Transformation”  as well as the isolation of the Finance Minister within the cabinet.

Fallout: Covid-19 and the economy

Fallout: Covid-19 and the economy

This month’s edition of the Macro Review explores the economic consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic in South Africa and the world.
Read more

The report provides the latest data on economic growth estimates, trade and investment volumes, as well as an analysis of the fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis.

Risk Alert (Week of 4 May 2020)

Risk Alert (Week of 4 May 2020)

This week, Bheki Mahlobo argues that the move from Stage 5 to Stage 4 lockdown represents a political response to public frustration at the lockdown, rather than a substantive change in policy.
Read more

Mahlobo notes that the reform faction of the ANC remains a minority, with the securocrats and ideologues controlling the balance of power.

Internationally, Mahlobo highlights the risk of South Africa’s foreign policy stances undermining longer term access to western funding.

Risk Alert (Week of 27 April)

Risk Alert (Week of 27 April)

CRA Research Assistant, Bheki Mahlobo argues that this week’s expected move from phase 5 to phase 4 of the South African lockdown may do relatively little to restore much by way of domestic economic activity.
Read more

Mahlobo notes that the weakness of South Africa’s stimulus position, combined with the flaws in the new lockdown model could see a major crisis in which public confidence in the government collapses just as the South African infection curve escalates and millions of people are forced to come to terms with deepening impoverishment.

Risk Alert (Week of 20 April)

Risk Alert (Week of 20 April)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers the proposal by the European Commission to reopen the economies of Europe, and contrasts this with the recent tightening of restrictions in Japan.
Read more

On South Africa, Dr Cronje discusses the growing likelihood of increased stimulus spending and highlights the prospect of money-printing as a medium-term risk.

Dr Cronje also reflects on the risks attendant to a premature re-opening of South Africa’s schools, which, he argues, would undermine much of the effect of the lockdown to date.

[Video] Economic consequences of the lockdown in South Africa

[Video] Economic consequences of the lockdown in South Africa

David Ansara of the CRA discusses the South African government's national lockdown strategy and the problems associated with it, including the artificial distinction between "essential" and "non-essential" services.
Read more

David was interviewed by Cyrus Rogers of the Covid-19 Chronicles.

Risk Alert (Week of 13 April 2020)

Risk Alert (Week of 13 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje identifies the ideological and political contestation within the Tripartite Alliance as a major risk complicating South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery thereafter.
Read more

Dr Cronje also provides projections of Covid-19 mortality estimates based on various case fatality rates (from 0.5% on the lower end to 2% on the top end). He argues that without much improved levels of testing, analysts and policy makers alike are effectively driving blind in their response to the pandemic.

Risk Alert (Week of 6 April 2020)

Risk Alert (Week of 6 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that despite the economic and market disruption, the worst case global scenarios for Covid-19 might be dissipating.
Read more

While there may be relative upsides beginning to emerge internationally, Dr Cronje’s assessment of South Africa’s recovery prospects are more downbeat as isolation protocols falter and the economic impact of the lockdown begin to be felt.

Lockdown: SA’s capacity to deal with the Covid-19 crisis

Lockdown: SA’s capacity to deal with the Covid-19 crisis

This edition of the Macro Review highlights the key areas of vulnerability that will ultimately determine the effectiveness of South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Read more

The report is divided into four sections:

  • Overview of the pandemic globally and its domestic effects
  • An analysis of the social profile of South Africa, including demographics and living conditions
  • A diagnostic of SA’s current healthcare resources, personnel and infrastructure
  • The economic impact of the crisis and the consequent fiscal and monetary responses
Risk Alert (Week of 30 March)

Risk Alert (Week of 30 March)

In this week’s alert, Dr Frans Cronje warns that the SA response to the Covid-19 pandemic may not be as effective as in other countries, especially as poorer communities struggle to adhere to isolation protocols.
Read more

Dr Cronje also looks beyond the current crisis to assess SA’s economic outlook post-Covid-19. Last week’s Moody’s downgrade will hinder recovery efforts, and will likely result in further ZAR weakening.

COVID-19: Global Scenarios

COVID-19: Global Scenarios

The Centre For Risk Analysis has released this Covid-19 Global Scenarios report to enable clients to develop immediate strategic responses to the Covid-19 crisis under conditions of rapid change, great uncertainty and limited information.
Read more

In this report, the CRA team has identified fifteen key driving forces that will shape the development of the crisis. These forces are ranked by relative impact and uncertainty in order to develop a series of scenarios for the pandemic and the global response.

The CRA will continue to work on and refine these scenarios and updated versions will be published, as well as explicit policy proposals for government and the private sector to pursue.

Clients of the CRA should schedule online briefings for our analysts to explain these scenarios and how they will come to affect their industry and society.