[Letter] GNU central to ANC leadership

Though campaigning has not officially begun, campaigns within the party have already received media attention. These early campaigns and internal calculations are worth consideration, especially given the influence the next party president will have on SA politics.

The contenders for party president are Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, international relations & co-operation minister Ronald Lamola, and deputy president Paul Mashatile.   

Some of these individuals have expressed opposing sentiments about the ANC’s decision to form the government of national unity (GNU), with the most serious doubts expressed about the party working with the DA. Lesufi has made his anti-GNU sentiments clear, and the ripples of his sentiments have been reflected in the turbulence of Gauteng’s provincial politics.

Mbalula is trying to be a stabilising force in the party, having defended the ANC’s choice to form the GNU. Thus far it has been difficult to determine Lamola and Mashatile’s views on the GNU (at least based on public statements).

The ANC party president matters because this person plays a key role in deciding the party’s way forward, and whether it continues to form part of the GNU. In the long term a person with anti-GNU sentiments is likely to partner with more radical parties such as the EFF and MK.

By contrast, a moderate leader is likely to be more willing to push for the ANC’s continued participation in a centrist, reform-minded GNU. Either path will be boosted by the post-2027 party leader’s preferences and calculations, with decidedly positive or negative repercussions for the country’s political and economic prospects.

Letter originally appeared here.