Strategic Intelligence Report

Relying on data and firsthand political information this report provides an analysis of the current macro socio-political and economic environment in South Africa and situates this within the global context. Drawing on the CRA’s scenario planning methodology, the Strategic Intelligence Report provides an estimate of how the long term future of the country will evolve over the next decade.
No. 1 | 2019

No. 1 | 2019

The Strategic Intelligence Report provides you with comprehensive analysis of the domestic and international political economy in a single place. This report is updated on an ongoing basis and published twice a year.
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Key judgements:

  • We are highly confident that no fundamental structural or policy reform will occur over the short-to-medium term.
  • We are highly confident that over the medium term, South Africa will continue to underperform emerging market economic growth averages by more than 50%.
  • We are highly confident that living standards and related indicators will stagnate/decline over the medium term.
  • We have moderate confidence that social stability will deteriorate over the medium term.
  • We have moderate confidence that balance of power within the African National Congress (ANC) and its parliamentary caucus leans to the corrupt racial nationalist factions of the party, while that in the Cabinet leans to the leftists within the tripartite alliance.
  • We have moderate confidence that support for both the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the ANC will stagnate and/or decline over the medium-to-long term and that the governing party will see its national electoral support slip below 50% by the end of the decade.
  • We have moderate-to-low confidence that the global economy will hold up over the short term.