Biden steps aside
On 21 July, President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 United States presidential election.
In this exclusive Client Note, analysts Chris Hattingh and Nicholas Lorimer look at how Mr Biden's decision to step aside will impact the Democratic and Republican election campaigns.
The authors write that the Democrats have an opportunity to reset the election environment, while the Republicans will have to shift their campaign focus.
A milder strike season
The standoff between the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa and car manufacturer Ford South Africa has come to an end.
In this exclusive Client Note, Researcher Anlu Keeve looks at the factors that could affect South Africa's 'strike season'. Ms Keeve writes that the country can expect fewer labour disruptions in 2024 compared to 2023.
A beefy cabinet
Yesterday, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the new members of the National Executive for the seventh administration.
In this exclusive Client Note, Chris Hattingh takes a closer look at the size and composition of the new cabinet.
Now that the new government has been formed, attention should be given to the compromises required to formulate policy and to establish governance mechanisms.
MK goes to Parliament
Fifty eight elected representatives of former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party have been sworn into Parliament.
In this exclusive Client Note, Chris Hattingh looks at the factors that could impact MK's long-term stability.
Mr Zuma’s ability to impose discipline on MK members — many of whom have highly controversial reputations — will be key for the party's sustainability.
The GNU option: ANC plays for time
10 June 2024 - On 6 June, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the ANC’s National Executive Committee’s decision: the party will invite other parties to form a Government of National Unity (GNU).
In this exclusive Client Note, Chris Hattingh lists the key strengths and weaknesses of the GNU option.
One of the key risks flagged by Mr Hattingh is that the GNU option may prove unstable and short-lived given divergent policy priorities between the many opposition party members.
NHI: The signals we send
16 May 2024 - President Ramaphosa has signed the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill into law.
In this exclusive Client Note, Chris Hattingh examines how the NHI scheme could raise barriers to investment in medical technology, and could push medical personnel to look for opportunities abroad.
Mr Hattingh argues that the NHI will put severe pressure on an already constrained tax base and further add to the country's fiscal woes.
Maize Meal Porridge (MMP) Index
07 March 2024 - Maize meal is the cornerstone staple food for many South Africans, particularly in economically disadvantaged communities.
In this exclusive Client Note, Mlondi Mdluli, the CRA's Senior Economics Researcher, unpacks our newly developed Maize Meal Porridge Index to determine the impact of food inflation on low-income households.
Mr Mdluli argues that sluggish economic growth and mounting energy costs are key contributors to the unaffordability of maize meal and other key food items.
Frosty Relations
16 February 2024 - Tensions are mounting between the United States and South Africa after a series of relationship-damaging events.
In this exclusive Client Note, Nicholas Lorimer and Chris Hattingh discuss a new bill which will oblige the United States to review its relationship with South Africa.
The authors argue that should the bill pass, it will have serious ramifications for trade and investment between the two countries – something South Africa's stagnant economy can barely afford.