Risk Alert (Week of 23 March 2020)
This week, Dr Frans Cronje assesses the SA government's capacity to respond to the rapidly unfolding Covid-19 crisis.
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Dr Cronje also discusses the volatility in international financial markets, the efficacy of stimulus measures, as well as prospects for the domestic and global economy in 2020.
Risk Alert (Week of 16 March 2020)
After the tumultuous events of last week, Dr Frans Cronje unpacks the ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 crisis and the consequent shocks in global financial markets.
Risk Alert (Week of 9 March 2020)
This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the US general elections, and the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Chinese manufacturing output.
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On the domestic front, Dr Cronje assesses the Finance Minister's prospects of reducing the public sector wage bill. Dr Cronje also highlights the risk of prescribed assets and the growing pressure on the SARB to loosen interest rates.
For queries on these or other points, please contact Bheki Mahlobo, who assisted Dr Cronje with the production of this alert.
Risk Alert (Week of 2 March 2020)
In his Risk Alert for the week of 2nd March, Dr Frans Cronje analyses three risks emerging out of last week’s Budget speech. Dr Cronje also assesses the uncertainty surrounding the global coronavirus outbreak, as well as the causes of the recent strengthening of the US dollar.
Risk Alert (Week of 24 Feb 2020)
This week, CRA Director, Dr Frans Cronje discusses trends in the global economy and likely consequences for SA.
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International factors include a dramatic slowdown in GDP growth in Japan, and the latest forward guidance by the US Federal Reserve, which indicated that it remains opposed to further rate cuts.
Two international bodies also made pronouncements on SA last week: Moody’s cut SA’s growth outlook from 1.5% to 0.7%; and the IMF, whose chief economist visited the country, dismissed the likelihood of a bailout for SA.
On the domestic political front, Dr Cronje discusses the origins of the Employment Equity Amendment Bill of 2020 and its likely impact.
Risk Alert (Week of 17 Feb 2020)
This week’s Risk Alert highlights the risks associated with the United States’ ongoing review of its trade relationship with South Africa.
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Dr Frans Cronje argues that last week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) failed to put forward a coherent plan to deal with SA’s deep economic problems.
Two such problems include SA’s stubbornly high unemployment and lower manufacturing production output, both of which are discussed here in some detail.
Risk Alert (Week of 10 Feb 2020)
This week’s Risk Alert focuses on the ongoing electricity supply shortfall, and the resulting constraints on SA’s economic growth.
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The proposed break-up of Eskom into multiple parts has been welcomed by many commentators. However, this could precipitate a second wave of state capture.
The global Coronavirus outbreak presents a contagion risk for SA and is something to watch closely.
Risk Alert (Week of 3 Feb 2020)
The CRA has launched a weekly Risk Alert service. In this first alert, CRA Director, Frans Cronje, discusses Mr Ramaphosa’s current vulnerability, the prospects for reform in the ANC and the significance of the recent bailout of SAA.