In a 13 February executive order (EO), ‘Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs’,US president Donald Trump puts forth a wide-ranging review and proposed change to how the US administers tariffs – and how the US administration views global trade as well as bodies such as the World Trade Organisation.
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Chris Hattingh is Executive Director at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA). With a special focus on trade, investment, and economic matters, as well as foreign policy, Chris serves on the Executive Board of the Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance, sits on the advisory council of the Initiative for African Trade and Prosperity and holds the position of Senior Fellow at African Liberty. Chris holds an MPhil (Business Ethics) degree from Stellenbosch University. In his role at the CRA, Chris leads strategic engagements and briefings to clients across South Africa, as well as globally.
SOUTH AFRICA’s G20 Presidency provides the host country with numerous diplomatic, economic, and cultural opportunities. With a main summit (22-23 November in Johannesburg) preceded by numerous side conferences and engagements focused on a range of areas and sectors, South Africa’s G20 Presidency offers multiple chances to make a positive impact on international diplomatic and business counterparts.
Another proposed bailout for Transnet is unlikely to fix its fundamental operational and management problems, and will undermine hard-won government fiscal credibility.
Dilution of property rights amounts to a spectacular own goal
In addition to the new trade review instructions implemented by Trump, the bipartisan US-SA Bilateral Review Act could be revived
With load-shedding seemingly a thing of the very recent past (load-limiting remains in place, and load-shedding could return when Eskom takes more of the coal fleet offline for maintenance), the major binding constraint on South Africa’s growth potential is the consistently awful performance of the country’s ports and railways.
Of all the vertically and horizontally integrated freight and ports companies that have existed in the world, Transnet is the last remaining of its kind. While there have been talks and nominal moves towards breaking up at least parts of Transnet’s various operations and introducing private sector investment and competition, these have not yet been made a reality.
Should US president-elect Donald Trump’s new administration succeed in implementing a raft of higher tariffs on imports, and generally place the US on a more protectionist trade and economic footing, developing economies such as SA will need to weather higher prices, more restricted and hobbled global trade flows, and the effects of a stronger dollar.