[Opinion] SA’s once-in-a-century opportunity

As President Cyril Ramaphosa finds his bearings in Washington, DC ahead of his meeting with President Donald Trump, he would be well advised to study what is discussed here, and for him and his colleagues to challenge themselves and engage differently with their American counterparts, instead of falling back on what is comfortable but ultimately does not serve South Africa’s national interest.

Risks abound: the 9 July resumption of US reciprocal tariffs looms large.

The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, and South Africa’s resultant benefits, are set to end on 30 September. The new trade reality is guaranteed to be at least the 10% universal tariff on imports into the US; the level of reciprocal tariff applied to a given country is to be determined. As part of its engagement with the US, the South African government is working on a package of trade measures.

The focus of such a package will be on ameliorating South African non-tariff barriers that affect US port, poultry, and beef. On the export side, South African citrus, wine, and automotive components and value chains will also form part of said package. Where South Africa presents more technical trade proposals, the easy wins are in agriculture. However, if South Africa fails to address deeper policy concerns from Washington – such as the perceived weakening of property rights and ratcheting up of race-based employment equity regulations – then “dry” trade deals will not achieve much purchase.

The quickest and easiest way for South Africa to improve relations with the US would be to drop its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. But this is unrealistic and unlikely. More pragmatically, South Africa can halt funding for the case, and secondly, the African National Congress (ANC) can cease consistently condemning the US in statements and documents. Along the foreign policy line, a deputy minister or two from other parties in the Government of National Unity (GNU) can be deployed in the Department of International Relations and Cooperation. Until now, the “new” South African government’s foreign policy has not changed from when the ANC ran the government on its own, especially in terms of how it interacts with the US. This reality has not gone unnoticed in Washington.

More proactive role-players

South Africa’s former diplomatic and regional heft is being overtaken by other, more proactive role-players in the sub-Saharan African region, with Rwanda, Kenya, and Angola chief amongst these. While those countries are adapting to the new, more transactional geopolitical reality, South Africa seeks to rely on history and its past reputation. Should the government (read: the ANC) continue to rely on its perceived moral and historical exceptionalism in its engagements with Washington it will only drive relations further downwards. Rainbow nation nostalgia does not translate to higher growth or investment rates and does not bolster SA’s economic case; whether this is with the US government and investors, or with those from other countries.

Additionally, the promise of initiatives such as the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will not be convincing enough; it needs to be shown and proven that the promise of wider and deeper trade integration has any future possibilities for US commercial interests, especially in services trade. Otherwise, the AfCFTA (and South Africa’s rhetorical advocacy thereof) will continue to be a talk shop. The 2025 geopolitical moment calls for South Africa to engage in unconventional diplomacy. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s direct call with President Trump can be one such moment – if used in conjunction with others.

A radical step change – welcomed in the White House – would be for the South African government to (at least in the rhetoric it employs) support think tanks and civil society organisations’ travel to and engagement with their counterparts in the US. Business-driven engagements are another form of unconventional diplomacy; here space and encouragement should be given to independent voices that speak candidly about the opportunities and risks, and not just the usual engagements where business is carefully sent (directly or indirectly) under the instructions of the government. Encouraging non-state engagements could also lessen pressure on special envoy Mcebisi Jonas, whose workload risks being extended beyond his capacity to usefully tackle it.

Easy route

While the easy route for the South African government is to assume that the US is now pursuing “America First” at its most isolationist and insular, to do so misses the fact that America First will not necessarily mean “America alone” in its final implementation. The current administration is focusing its resources and attention on the simmering and potentially hot conflict(s) with China. It seeks active, mature, and capable partners around the world upon whom it can count, and where American business and investment would be welcomed.

From this regional stability perspective, actively engaging with the ongoing deteriorating situation in Mozambique would show that South Africa is taking its regional responsibilities and opportunities seriously. Where US companies explore mining investments in the DRC, South African mining companies can provide expertise and other forms of shared investments. Regarding mining, South Africa of course has a lot to offer within its own borders, both in extraction and facilitating financing/investment, but the country risks missing that moment if the industry remains hobbled by excessive regulations and endless debates on beneficiation. The BHP/Anglo talks revealed the extent to which South African mining has become a liability rather than an asset. The government needs to look at what should change to avoid missing the opportunities there as well.

The gaze from Washington has been harsh. Seen from another perspective, however, the country is being afforded free PR to engage with a radically different US administration. South Africa should use this moment of change to implement the kinds of reforms that would see the country take advantage of its demographic dividend and benefit from foreign investment (not only from the US). This could set the country into higher growth and job creation rates for years to come. Make no mistake: this moment in global and South African history could prove to be a once-in-a-century opportunity for the country to be put on a different path.

Should President Ramaphosa and his government colleagues change at least some of their rhetoric and thinking, there will be openings for more real movement over the next few months and years. Continue along the same path as before, though, and South Africa’s growth prospects slip further and further away, possibly never to be recovered again.

Article originally appeared here.