[Opinion] South Africa’s demographic opportunity a key driver to unlocking population potential

On the downside, a young, large population whose needs and requirements are not met, whose potential is inhibited, and which becomes disillusioned with the political offering(s) on offer, is poised to lean towards more radical ideas or ‘solutions’ offered by more populist individuals, organisations, or parties.

Whether South Africa, and the Government of National Unity in partnership with the private sector specifically, can make the policy reforms and investments necessary to unlock the population’s potential, or simply continue on the low-growth path of the last 15 years, is yet to be seen.

In our latest Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) Macro Review report, Demographics without dividends, authors Tawanda Makombo and Gerbrandt van Heerden find that “between 1991 and 2024, South Africa’s population increased by 74% or from 36,2-million to 63-million. The average annual population growth rate did, however, slow down, falling from a high of 1,64% in 2013/14 to 1,33% in 2023/24.”

The challenge of capacitating and enabling the country’s young population becomes all the starker when one understands that those, “aged 15 to 34 number some 20,9-million, representing around a third of people in South Africa. However, they face several economic and social pressures.”

As tends to be the case across the country’s population groups unemployment rears its head here once again: “4 out of 10 youths are without a job. Some 27% live in households without an employed adult, further perpetuating the cycle of poverty.”

Younger South Africans’ daily existence is typified by numerous risks and challenges: “About 14% live in households that reported experiencing hunger regularly. Around 42% are neither employed nor attending an educational facility. A fifth (21%) rely on the government for financial assistance in the form of a social grant, and 3,7-million (17,7%) say that they feel unsafe walking in their neighbourhoods during the day.”

In light of the 2022 Census, the challenge of creating an enabling environment for economic growth and job creation is clear: based on the Census count over the next three to five years, all the country’s metros except for Cape Town and Buffalo City, face the prospect of being allocated smaller budgets.

This is largely the consequence of the Census finding that the populations of the larger metros had, while still growing, increased somewhat less than initially thought. Those larger metros that require more infrastructure investments and the payment of public officials’ salaries will need to do all they can with what they have – and to make their areas as attractive to private sector investment and business formation as possible.

Considering the municipal challenges in its metros, Gauteng’s 15,9-million strong population (a quarter of the country’s population) could well be in for a relatively more challenging short-to-medium term future. As the CRA report finds that, “While the populations of both Gauteng and the Western Cape increased significantly – by 80,1% and 65,5% respectively since 2004.”

As mentioned above, the country’s population growth rate has slowed somewhat over the last few years; it will remain steady to lowering slightly over time for the foreseeable future. A better economic growth rate, declining costs, confidence in the country’s future, and more migration from sub-Saharan African countries would reverse the decline.

Regardless, South Africa’s population is large, and young; it can spur economic prosperity, or be a serious risk for the government and broader society if its concerns and potential are not adequately met and opened up for.