September 2018

The September edition – Economy besieged by hostile policy – looks at the state of South Africa’s economy.

This year, emerging markets will average economic growth rates of around 5%. But, largely because of counterproductive policy decisions of the government, South Africa will probably achieve only a tenth of that — rates averaging 5% were last seen more than a decade ago.

The structure of GDP continues to evolve in the direction of a tertiary-orientated and post-industrial economy. There is also relatively little life across any of the ten major sectors of the economy, a problem reflected in their combined weak contribution to employment growth. More jobs will surely be lost as the fiscal crisis forces the government into some measure of austerity.  

Policy reform is the only real ‘stimulus’ package open to the government. Otherwise, there will be little improvement in the numbers reflected in this report.