April 2019

The April edition - ‘Elections Preview’ - looks into past general elections as well as the upcoming general election scheduled for 8th May.

CRA polling suggests that African National Congress (ANC) representation in Parliament will drop substantially below the 60% mark for the first time, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are likely to see an increase in representation from 6% to +/-11%. The Democratic Alliance (DA) appears to have plateaued at +/-24%.

CRA data also projects a drop for the ANC from 55% to 42% of votes cast on the provincial ballot in Gauteng, with the DA flatlining at 32%. The least racially diverse party, the EFF, looks set to climb from 11% to around 18%, which would make Gauteng the EFF’s strongest province.

Key risks: Voter apathy decreases the legitimacy of the Government, and the Rule of Law; populism rises in an attempt to appease the disaffected; Gauteng coalition politics are unstable; internal party structures remain unchanged despite popular disillusionment.

The Fast Stats pages, with financial and other statistics, are included.