Vol. 1

This report provides a crisp analysis of the risks and opportunities in the global and domestic economic, political and socio-economic environment.

The report acknowledges positive perceptions following Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidential ascendancy, and the subsequent Moody’s decision to retain South Africa’s Baa3 rating while changing the outlook from negative to stable. However, it highlights the motion on expropriation as the country’s single greatest investment risk, coupled with the absence of indications of sufficient policy reform in the key areas of labour, mining and empowerment.

The report cautions that low Treasury growth projections, a failure to demonstrate fiscal discipline and undershooting on revenue collection collectively leave the way open to future rating downgrades. These risks are contrasted with the opportunity, through fundamental policy reform, to position South Africa as a more competitive emerging market capable of achieving a 5% economic growth rate.