Vol. 4

This report analyses the risks and opportunities in the global and domestic economic, political and socio-economic environment.

Overall, talk on trade by the United States (US) may have had the effect of its top trading partners deepening trade elsewhere as a hedge. Internal political dynamics within Iran add to the difficulty of a new Iran deal.

On South Africa’s political landscape, President Cyril Ramaphosa (CR) has made clear he will not risk party unity, even if he is seen as weak. The hope that Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) will be confined to agricultural land is misplaced. More Chinese intervention and influence can be expected.

In the policy landscape, an exemption from the National Minimum Wage (NMW) for some small- to medium-size firms appears to be ignored by bureaucrats.

We expect policy to continue reflecting wealth extraction over growth regardless of the deeper consequences for investor sentiment.

On the economic pulse, second quarter GDP growth is expected to disappoint and will take South Africa very close to recessionary territory, while calling Treasury growth forecasts into question.

In the engine room, unemployment and the burden on individual tax payers are rising, while household confidence is slipping.