The 2021 Budget: Living on borrowed time

The latest report from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled ​Living On Borrowed Time assesses the macroeconomic trends and key policy risks emerging from the National Budget.
The 2021 Budget: Living on borrowed time

In this month’s edition we unpack Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s 2021 National Budget and identify the risk of South Africa’s deteriorating fiscal position.  

Key takeaways:

  • The government expects economic growth of 3.3% for 2021, stabilising at 1.6% by 2023.
  • It expects to collect revenue of R1.52 trillion, or 28.4% of GDP in 2021/22.
  • Expenditure is expected to reach R2.02 trillion in 2021/22.
  • The government therefore expects a main budget balance of -R482.6 billion in 2021/22 or -9% of GDP.
  • The consolidated budget balance is -R500 billion or -9.3% of GDP.
  • The government expects a debt-to-GDP ratio of 81.9% in 2021/22, rising to 87.3% by 2023/24.
  • Debt service costs amount to R269.7 billion (17.7% of revenue and 13.3% of expenditure).
  • The budget deficit amounts to R1.4 billion being borrowed every day for the year 2021.
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