Risk Alert (Week of 20 April)
This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers the proposal by the European Commission to reopen the economies of Europe, and contrasts this with the recent tightening of restrictions in Japan.
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On South Africa, Dr Cronje discusses the growing likelihood of increased stimulus spending and highlights the prospect of money-printing as a medium-term risk.
Dr Cronje also reflects on the risks attendant to a premature re-opening of South Africa’s schools, which, he argues, would undermine much of the effect of the lockdown to date.
Risk Alert (Week of 13 April 2020)
This week, Dr Frans Cronje identifies the ideological and political contestation within the Tripartite Alliance as a major risk complicating South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery thereafter.
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Dr Cronje also provides projections of Covid-19 mortality estimates based on various case fatality rates (from 0.5% on the lower end to 2% on the top end). He argues that without much improved levels of testing, analysts and policy makers alike are effectively driving blind in their response to the pandemic.
Risk Alert (Week of 6 April 2020)
This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that despite the economic and market disruption, the worst case global scenarios for Covid-19 might be dissipating.
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While there may be relative upsides beginning to emerge internationally, Dr Cronje’s assessment of South Africa’s recovery prospects are more downbeat as isolation protocols falter and the economic impact of the lockdown begin to be felt.
Risk Alert (Week of 30 March)
In this week’s alert, Dr Frans Cronje warns that the SA response to the Covid-19 pandemic may not be as effective as in other countries, especially as poorer communities struggle to adhere to isolation protocols.
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Dr Cronje also looks beyond the current crisis to assess SA’s economic outlook post-Covid-19. Last week’s Moody’s downgrade will hinder recovery efforts, and will likely result in further ZAR weakening.