On South Africa, Dr Cronje discusses the growing likelihood of increased stimulus spending and highlights the prospect of money-printing as a medium-term risk.
Dr Cronje also reflects on the risks attendant to a premature re-opening of South Africa’s schools, which, he argues, would undermine much of the effect of the lockdown to date.
Dr Cronje also provides projections of Covid-19 mortality estimates based on various case fatality rates (from 0.5% on the lower end to 2% on the top end). He argues that without much improved levels of testing, analysts and policy makers alike are effectively driving blind in their response to the pandemic.
While there may be relative upsides beginning to emerge internationally, Dr Cronje’s assessment of South Africa’s recovery prospects are more downbeat as isolation protocols falter and the economic impact of the lockdown begin to be felt.
Dr Cronje also looks beyond the current crisis to assess SA’s economic outlook post-Covid-19. Last week’s Moody’s downgrade will hinder recovery efforts, and will likely result in further ZAR weakening.