2018

No. 3 Vol. 1 3rd & 4th Quarter 2018

No. 3 Vol. 1 3rd & 4th Quarter 2018

This report provides insight into the current macro socio-political and economic environment in South Africa, judging that the government will not introduce much by way of structural reform over the short to medium term, that the ANC will achieve a national majority in the 2019 election, possibly approaching 60%, that political instability will worsen over the short to medium term, and that low rates of economic growth will persist over the short to medium term with significant downside risk.
No. 2 Vol. 1 2nd Quarter 2018

No. 2 Vol. 1 2nd Quarter 2018

This report provides insight into the current macro socio-political and economic environment in South Africa, judging that, among other things, South Africa’s economy will underperform emerging market norms to a significant extent over the medium term, and that that property rights will remain under pressure over at least the medium term.
No. 1 Vol. 1 1st Quarter 2018

No. 1 Vol. 1 1st Quarter 2018

This report provides an estimate of the current macro socio-political and economic environment in South Africa, highlighting the continuing influence of the political infrastructure that arose around Jacob Zuma, and, thus, the likelihood that, over the short to medium term, the ruling party will prioritise unity over structural reform.
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The CRA does not anticipate marked improvements in the unemployment rate or per capita GDP levels over the medium term, but remains confident that the social fabric of the country remains sound enough to considerably mitigate the risk of social fragmentation over the medium term.