Key judgements:
- We are highly confident that no fundamental structural or policy reform will occur over the short-to-medium term.
- We are highly confident that over the medium term, South Africa will continue to underperform emerging market economic growth averages by more than 50%.
- We are highly confident that living standards and related indicators will stagnate/decline over the medium term.
- We have moderate confidence that social stability will deteriorate over the medium term.
- We have moderate confidence that balance of power within the African National Congress (ANC) and its parliamentary caucus leans to the corrupt racial nationalist factions of the party, while that in the Cabinet leans to the leftists within the tripartite alliance.
- We have moderate confidence that support for both the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the ANC will stagnate and/or decline over the medium-to-long term and that the governing party will see its national electoral support slip below 50% by the end of the decade.
- We have moderate-to-low confidence that the global economy will hold up over the short term.