2020

Global and South African Scenarios in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic

Global and South African Scenarios in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic

The report identifies ten key driving forces of the Covid-19 crisis and provides four scenarios for the future of the pandemic using the CRA’s unique scenario planning methodology.
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In this paper we seek to estimate the likely trajectory of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes – Covid-19 – on the world and South Africa.

Specifically, we seek to address how long the pandemic will last, what its effects on people and their health will be, what its economic ramifications will be, and what it will take for South Africa to successfully endure the pandemic.

This is to guide decision makers as to the likely trajectory of the virus and allow them to test the robustness of the strategies they have put in place to mitigate the effects of the virus.

COVID-19: Global Scenarios

COVID-19: Global Scenarios

The Centre For Risk Analysis has released this Covid-19 Global Scenarios report to enable clients to develop immediate strategic responses to the Covid-19 crisis under conditions of rapid change, great uncertainty and limited information.
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In this report, the CRA team has identified fifteen key driving forces that will shape the development of the crisis. These forces are ranked by relative impact and uncertainty in order to develop a series of scenarios for the pandemic and the global response.

The CRA will continue to work on and refine these scenarios and updated versions will be published, as well as explicit policy proposals for government and the private sector to pursue.

Clients of the CRA should schedule online briefings for our analysts to explain these scenarios and how they will come to affect their industry and society.