In the context of rising food and fuel prices, an official unemployment rate of 34%, and growth-depressing factors such as blockades of the N3 and persistent rolling blackouts, South Africa faces the prospect of more social unrest and instability over coming months.
Chris Hattingh is Executive Director at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA). With a special focus on trade, investment, and economic matters, as well as foreign policy, Chris serves on the Executive Board of the Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance, sits on the advisory council of the Initiative for African Trade and Prosperity and holds the position of Senior Fellow at African Liberty. Chris holds an MPhil (Business Ethics) degree from Stellenbosch University. In his role at the CRA, Chris leads strategic engagements and briefings to clients across South Africa, as well as globally.
Inflation is likely to remain high given that there is little prospect that substantive structural reforms in both the policy and administered price areas will be implemented any time soon (“SA consumers at ‘tipping point’ as food inflation soars, says NielsenIQ”, July 27).
There may be overtures to accountability and structural reforms, but for as long as the ANC adheres to the requirements and edicts of the NDR the incentives and pressures for corruption will persist.
Within the context of a tightening global business environment, foreign investment in countries such as South Africa may decline, or head towards more friendly climates. Higher interest rates also mean tighter credit, and so businesses that want to expand may be faced with higher risk and credit costs.
Monopolising the management of healthcare — even if it is done only incrementally over a long period — will add yet more layers of bureaucracy and control over doctors and nurses, and concentrate resources in the hands of the state. In so doing it will add incentives for cronyism and corruption.
Considering the consistently below-average performance of the country’s ports, it comes as no surprise that the Port of Maputo is emerging as an alternative to its nearest South African competitors, a point confirmed by Chris Hattingh, senior policy analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis.
The Centre for Risk Analysis says conditions at local ports are costing Transnet and the economy billions, due to years of neglect.
South Africa’s recent attempts at structural reform tinker at the margins and do little to resolve barriers to investment and employment, especially regarding labour markets.