Early Trump signal for US-SA trade
A new executive order introduced by United States President Donald Trump could potentially see South Africa lose access to the lucrative Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
In this exclusive Client Note, CRA Executive Director Chris Hattingh unpacks how the review of US trade agreements could impact South Africa's economy as well as the stability of the Government of National Unity.
The loss of AGOA access would send a clear, negative signal to international investors.
The Gauteng metros and the ANC leadership race
The African National Congress (ANC) will elect a new party president at its 2027 leadership conference and Gauteng will serve as an important battleground.
In this exclusive Client Note, CRA Analyst Carika Middelberg explores who will be the strongest contenders for party president – a key stepping stone to becoming the president of South Africa.
Ms Middelberg writes that Gauteng’s metros are at risk of becoming collateral damage as political battles take precedence over the needs of residents.
Trump 2.0 and South Africa
President-elect Donald Trump has received a strong mandate from US voters, enabling him to act decisively on his key priorities in 2025 and 2026.
In this exclusive Client Note, CRA Executive Director Chris Hattingh looks at the global impact of a Trump presidency, including the risks and opportunities for South Africa.
Mr Hattingh writes that the best route forward for the Government of National Unity in South Africa is to practise credible non-alignment.
Instability in West Africa will spill over
Since 2020, five West African countries have experienced coups d’état and internal factional conflict.
In this exclusive Client Note, CRA Analyst Carika Middelberg looks at growing instability in West Africa and the potential impact on the entire African continent.
Ms Middelberg writes that South Africa's ailing military could be forced to become involved to prevent wider regional conflict.
Day Zero in Gauteng
Starting the week of 16 September 2024, Rand Water imposed Level 1 water restrictions in Gauteng.
In this exclusive Client Note, CRA Executive Director Chris Hattingh, looks at the various factors shaping the imminent water crisis in the Gauteng metros.
According to Mr Hattingh Gauteng businesses and residents should brace themselves for at least four years of frequent water outages.
The GNU’s corruption conundrum
How will the African National Congress deal with corrupt leaders within its ranks?
In this exclusive Client Note, analyst Carika Middelberg unpacks how many members of the ANC's National Executive Committee have been implicated in corruption.
According to Ms Middelberg, rooting out corruption will be one of the greatest challenges for the Government of National Unity.
What would a Trump presidency mean for US-African trade?
The presidential election in the United States (US) will take place on 5 November 2024.
In this exclusive Client Note, analyst Hermann Pretorius looks at what a second Donald Trump term could mean for US trade policy towards Africa and South Africa.
Mr Trump’s White House might see Africa-focused, pro-trade initiatives as valuable geopolitical tools worth preserving. But there will be less tolerance for South Africa's pro-Iranian stance.
Biden steps aside
On 21 July, President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 United States presidential election.
In this exclusive Client Note, analysts Chris Hattingh and Nicholas Lorimer look at how Mr Biden's decision to step aside will impact the Democratic and Republican election campaigns.
The authors write that the Democrats have an opportunity to reset the election environment, while the Republicans will have to shift their campaign focus.